Based on point spreads and betting trends, the Ohio State–Georgia College Football Playoff semifinal isn’t looking so peachy for the Buckeyes. The Dec. 31 Peach Bowl is a day too early for Ohio’s online sports betting debut, but the trend is interesting nonetheless.
Georgia opened as a 7-point favorite. The BetMGM spread was enticing enough to attract about 84% of the bets and 85% of the money on the Bulldogs.
In fact, betting podcaster and DraftKings contributor Julian Edlow called the Ohio State-Georgia splits “terrifying” at the DK Nation site.
At DraftKings, about 85% of the tickets and 90% of the money are on Georgia, according to Edlow’s post.
So if Georgia:
- opened as “just” a touchdown favorite
- and if 85% of bettors think Georgia will cover that spread
Shouldn’t we expect a wider point spread from sportsbooks to coax more bets on the Buckeyes? Lopsided trends can lead to those “terrifying” losses at places like DraftKings or BetMGM.
The sharp side of betting
Public bets aren’t the only thing to keep an eye on, according to BetMGM Sports Trader Seamus Magee. He updated us on Dec. 27, so the line could move in either direction between now and New Year’s Eve.
“There are many factors that impact betting odds. Currently, more than 80% of bets are on Georgia but the line has actually moved from Georgia -7 to -6.5. The sportsbook has taken some notable wagers on Ohio State, which has caused the line to move.”
So, sharps might be using their professional betting experience to shift the line — ever so slightly — toward Ohio State.
But Edlow is on the side of the majority.
“The public has the right side here. Ultimately, I think we’re underrating Georgia in this spot, while overrating Ohio State a bit. UGA has won all but one of its games this season by double-digits.”
About that Peach Bowl split
Georgia will line up for a kickoff in Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the third time this season. The Bulldogs crushed Oregon 49-3 in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game to start the season. The SEC title game is also held at the home of the Atlanta Falcons. Georgia had no trouble in a 50-30 win over LSU for the conference championship.
Ohio State’s lopsided loss to Michigan also tells Edlow, “This one could get ugly.”
As an aside, Magee from BetMGM told PlayOhio the 85-15 gap in Peach Bowl bets would narrow if sports betting was already up and running in Ohio.
How to watch the Peach Bowl
- What: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
- When: 8 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 31
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta
- TV: ESPN and the ESPN app
The Peach Bowl winner faces the Fiesta Bowl winner in the CFP National Championship Game. Michigan and TCU face each other at 4 p.m. on New Year’s Eve in Glendale, AZ.
College football’s “Super Bowl” takes place at 7:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 19 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA.