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Prediction markets entered Election Day with more than $1.48 billion wagered on the US midterms, according to Reuters reporting summarized by RG. The figures put Kalshi and Polymarket under scrutiny over their ability to forecast political races.
The national activity follows Ohio enforcement action: PlayOhio reported on Oct. 22 that Ohio sent cease-and-desist letters to 10 prediction markets and brokers.
Kalshi reports $1.33 billion in midterm volume
Kalshi reported $1.33 billion in trading volume across its midterm markets on Monday. About $145 million had been wagered on Polymarket’s congressional markets, according to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, or ACDC.
More than 28,000 midterm markets had opened. Senate contests in Texas, Michigan, Maine and South Carolina accounted for much of the volume, ACDC said.
“Tuesday does, in fact, represent a real test for the new wave of prediction markets,” Yesha Yadav told Reuters. “Many of these contests are close.”
Thin markets raise accuracy concerns
Reuters noted that prediction markets had recorded high-profile misses during US primaries and Brazil’s presidential election.
“But how accurate the price is for any specific market is impossible to know,” Joshua Clinton told Reuters.
ACDC found that most congressional markets were thin enough for trades of less than $100 to move prices by five cents. A Polymarket account also placed an $846,000 bet against a Republican House in the final days before the vote.
Kalshi and Polymarket say they have strengthened controls against misconduct. Kalshi blocks politicians and campaign workers from political wagers.
In Wisconsin, a federal judge refused to block the state’s ban on voters betting on elections in which they vote.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966.
More from playohio.com – Kalshi, Polymarket Political Giving Tops $5 Million, Includes Ohio-Linked PAC – Polymarket US Sues Ohio Officials Over Sports Betting Requirements – Here’s What Ohio Lawmakers Should Learn From Michigan Online Casinos
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Source: As reported by RG.
